What you need to know
- Climate tipping points are those moments where the temperature rises caused by increasing GHG emissions cause an irreversible change within a part of the climate system.
- The situation globally could be catastrophic where a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is predicted to disrupt the typical monsoon rainfall patterns and therefore the production of global crops such as wheat and maize.
- At present, these tipping points are not included in the climate scenarios (such as the scenarios provided by the IPCC1, IEA2 or NGFS3) that most corporates use to assess the climate risks and opportunities.
What you need to do
- Companies should also adapt their risk assessments so that impact rather than likelihood is the criterion on which prioritization decisions are based.
- The transition plan serves as an important communication tool. It provides stakeholders with a transparent view of the company’s decarbonisation pathway and more.
What if the climate conveyor belt that allows the UK to grow wine at the same latitude as Canada has polar bears just stopped?
That might become a reality if we reach this climate tipping point.
The Sub-polar Gyre (SPG), part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is increasingly at risk of collapse as global warming intensifies.
As Laurie Laybourn, Executive Director of SCRI, puts it: "The new climate reality is arriving and it looks a lot different to what our assessments claimed..."
Tipping points like this are a reminder that change won't always be gradual or predictable.
Companies are grappling with this new reality and leaning into Transition Plans to structure scenarios and set the guidance for operating in uncertainty.
As Mike Geary, Principal, Climate and Nature at Anglo American, puts it: "A good transition plan helps you operate while change occurs."
"People can work with uncertainty as long as they have some direction. A good transition plan creates the right conditions to allow for decision making in an environment that is changing in a non-linear way to keep the organization's transition moving."
Read the full report to learn how tipping points are reshaping climate risk assessment, and what companies need to do about it.
Authors: Becky Clissmann, Counsel; Laurie Laybourn, Executive Director, SCRI and Mike Geary, Principal, Climate and Nature, Anglo American.
Want to know more?
- Transition planning
Helping clients to navigate the complex and evolving sustainability reporting landscape needed to build on their net zero ambitions. - The Basics of Transition Planning (14 May 2026)
Transition Plans are strategic plans developed by companies to evidence and guide their shift from business-as-usual operations to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future, that aligns with global climate goals, such as limiting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels under the Paris Agreement.
