World@Work: Trade union trends in 2027

Peter McNulty
Hello and welcome to Ashurst Perkins Coie's Legal Outlook. You're listening to the latest episode in our employment World @ Work series.

I'm Peter McNulty, a partner in our employment team in Melbourne, Australia. In this episode, we're looking at where trade unions are likely to focus their efforts in 2027. Across our regions, the picture is one of union renewal in most places, but with one striking exception, which we'll come to.
I'm joined today by my fellow partners, Heather Sager from San Francisco.

Heather Sager
Hi, Peter. Pleasure to be here.

Peter McNulty
Ruth Buchanan from London.

Ruth Buchanan
Hello.

Peter McNulty
Jeannette Tam from our Asian employment practice.

Jeannette Tam
Hi, everyone.

Peter McNulty
And senior associate Jordan Cohen from Paris. Jordan's going to share his thoughts from our colleagues in France, Germany, and Spain.

Jordan Cohen 00:53
Hi Peter. Good to be with you.

Peter McNulty 00:55
Welcome, everyone. And Heather, it's particularly exciting to have the U.S. as part of our World @ Work series today.

Heather Sager 01:00
Excellent. It's great to be here.

Peter McNulty 01:02
In this podcast, each of us will share key union trends that are either emerging or on the horizon in our part of the world, and we'll compare some notes on what employers should be looking out for.

So let's start here in Australia: One of the things we anticipate to see a lot more of in 2027 – and that we've already started seeing – is the increasing union involvement in advocacy for gig economy workers and contractors.

Now, the government over the past few years has introduced a range of frameworks to treat these workers as akin to employees. Recently, the Fair Work Commission made interim orders setting minimum standards, minimum terms and conditions for on-demand delivery drivers – one of the first of its kind in Australia.

We're also seeing other employee-like protections as well, protections against unfair deactivations for gig workers and unfair contract protections. Now we see unions as seeing this as “fertile new ground” for membership.

And for our clients and broader employers and companies in Australia, they need to be thinking about union involvement in places which might not historically have attracted that involvement. And Jeanette, I understand in Singapore there's a similar trend emerging?

Jeannette Tam 02:20
Yeah, that's absolutely right. So at the moment, Singapore really is “the one to watch” for the gig [economy] point because under its Platform Workers Act, platform work associations can now represent delivery and ride-hail workers. They can also negotiate collective agreements [with] platforms, and so according to the National Union Center, every major delivery taxi and ride-hail platform now recognizes one of those associations, and it has said that recognition is only a start.

So in 2027, the thing to watch is the first collective agreements, and then separately, the Manpower Ministry told Parliament this month it's weighing action against employers who can afford to pay retrenchment benefits but don't.

Peter McNulty 03:12
And Heather, I understand in the U.S. there is some movement of unions into non-traditional industries as well?

Heather Sager 03:19
But also moving into arenas they've been in in non-traditional ways. So I'll give you an example there, vis-a-vis the gig economy. Unions have proffered to negotiate on behalf of the individual service providers, who aren't even represented by the unions. So they're almost volunteering to be wage and benefit negotiators, in the hope that these people will then elect to join the union, thus giving them a toehold in the door. That's an approach we haven't seen historically.

In other arenas, we are seeing the unions work out and try to organize in economies and businesses that they haven't traditionally had a toehold in (for example, video gaming, software development, professional services like medical residents, and even law students, and then things like college athletics).

So they're reaching out to these industries in the hope that they are populations of people who historically work really long hours, feel that they're not fairly compensated in proportion to the hours they work, and feel that they don't have a voice that can make changes to their terms of employment. That's the union's message and hook. They're saying “We have a history, pattern, and practice of representing people like you, albeit in very different industries, and that's led to better outcomes” for them as individuals.

Peter McNulty 04:49
What is it about those new industries that means they're more susceptible to that increased union influence at the moment?

Heather Sager 04:55
The reason the unions are going after those new industries is because there are categories of employees there that historically have been underrepresented, and in some instances not treated as well. So you have people who are typically working long hours; they're not getting as many opportunities for promotion. They don't feel that they're getting really key benefits that are available to other categories of the workforce, and for them, they think that their bargaining power is going to be stronger and more credible on a collective basis, and they just don't think that they have the power to do it themselves.

Peter McNulty 05:38
And does that play out in practice? Is that sort of what actually occurs once the unions get involved?

Heather Sager 05:44
Well, that's an interesting question, and I will admit probably to some industry bias.
My opinion is that if employees band together and need to bring up workplace issues themselves, they should be able to do that more effectively than a union who doesn't know anything about the workplace, the players, or the history, and comes in as an outside third party.

Peter McNulty 06:06
Yeah, it's really interesting, Heather. I think where we in Australia have unions who have been entrenched for some time in lots of workplaces, which means their involvement really has, I think, a different impact because oftentimes they do know the business. That's a really interesting insight.
And Ruth, I understand in the UK there's a similar rise of unions in these non-traditional industries as well?

Ruth Buchanan 06:34
Yes, that's right. So we're reading some really interesting press reports here of tech sector employers in the UK reaching access agreements voluntarily, and that's ahead of changes being made to the law here.

For example, in September, Meta reached its first UK trade union access agreement after it was approached by the union Prospect, and that'll give union access to about 5,000 of their staff across the UK. We're also seeing, kind of for the first time here, creative industries starting to be approached by unions.

Peter McNulty
That’s a really interesting development, Ruth, in those newer sectors where unions haven’t traditionally been strong. Why do you think that organizing is growing in those industries?

Ruth Buchanan
The commentary suggesting that really the interest in union memberships, understandably being driven by fears about AI, and obviously that's just going to accelerate in 2027.

Peter McNulty 07:35
I think from an Australian perspective, we also see that AI rollout as a really big focus for unions in enterprise bargaining. We see unions pressing for “no forced redundancy” clauses to be included in enterprise agreements.

We're also seeing a real focus of unions, both in terms of political campaign and campaigns for employers more generally, about seeking to impose limits on when AI can be used in the workplace, disclosures about when AI is being used, and challenges to workforce change and strategic restructures where AI might be one of the causes as well.

So I definitely think coming into 2027, we are going to see unions increasingly concerned by the speed of the rollout of AI, and employers concerned to ensure that their changes (which they see as very necessary to achieving productivity) are able to be implemented without being stopped or unnecessarily delayed as well.

Jordan, on that front, what's the experience like in Europe at the moment?

Jordan Cohen 08:48
So France, Germany, and Spain, as EU countries, already give employee representatives rights over AI.

Concerns in Spain are about unions using their rights to information on algorithm- and AI-based selection for dismissal becoming the new area of litigation.

In France, the key concern is how far can employers go with AI implementation before consulting the works council? And whether unions have a real influence on how AI is going to be deployed within companies.

In Germany a concern is works councils' de facto veto slowing AI adoption, and AI framework agreements becoming the norm.

Peter McNulty 09:33
And then, what are the sort of the risks to employers in those situations?

Jordan Cohen 09:38
So the main risks are:
• challenges to vague AI-based selection for dismissal in Spain
• proceedings in France to suspend AI implementation tools before the works council was consulted, and
• delayed or blocked rollout in Germany when no works no works agreement has been reached

So generally, unions are not opposed to AI, but they want to regulate it through collective bargaining agreements, human oversight, limits on monitoring, and guarantees on jobs and training.

So for now, there are few collective agreements that deal with AI – so more AI frameworks agreements are expected to [come to] light in the coming year.

Peter McNulty 10:22
And Ruth, coming back to you, I think in terms of the UK [experience], what we're seeing in Australia at the moment is unions escalating claims in enterprise bargaining through work bans and strikes. There's continued difficulties for employers seeking to go to the Commission and seek to have that action terminated or suspended. The bar for terminating or suspending industrial action seems to be continually increasing, despite there being some relatively significant impacts of that action on employers and the broader public as well. Where is it heading in the UK with these new laws you mentioned?

Ruth Buchanan 11:03
Yes, I think we might well be heading in that direction in the UK, and the changes being made under the Employment Rights Act 2025 really represent the most radical overhaul of UK employment rights that we've seen in a generation. But delivering those changes is placing a direct cost on employers, and that's estimated by the UK government to be around a billion pounds a year once the act's fully implemented.

And if you take that together with the recent tax increases, such as higher employer National Insurance contributions, that means that employers are really having to make tough choices, such as recruitment freezes and redundancy exercises.

And against that backdrop, the Act has significantly increased the powers of trade unions, probably on a scale that we haven't seen in the UK since the 1970s. There's a whole raft of “union friendly” measures, but with the enhanced rights of access and information, in particular, we all think that the dial on union membership is going to move, and unions are just going to become much more appealing to workers who are really hard pressed by the cost of living crisis here. And those enhanced rights give unions much more visibility in UK workplaces. And in the government's words, this is the intention: “to strengthen the voice of working people”.

Peter McNulty 12:26
And you mentioned those enhanced rights are increasing that visibility of unions in the workplace, which sounds very familiar to some of the things that are in Australia at the moment.

What do those enhanced rights look like?

Ruth Buchanan 12:41
Yes. So from 30 October, qualifying trade unions here are going to have a statutory right to access workplaces, and that will be both physically and digitally.

There are procedural steps for the union and the employer to negotiate an access agreement, and I won't go into that now. But in essence, unions are going to be able to communicate with workers to meet them, support them, represent them, recruit them, organize them, and also to facilitate collective bargaining.

And then also from January next year, employers are going to have a new duty to give their workers a written statement of their right to join a trade union, and that's going to have to be given to all new workers when they join, and then to all existing workers by 5 April next year. And the government's going to provide a standard statement, but employers can only add workplace-specific information to that. New workers will have to receive that statement directly, for example, by email or in person; existing workers can receive it directly or indirectly, and there are set timescales for when reminders have to go out.

Peter McNulty 13:52
That all sounds quite familiar from an Australian perspective. I think what we see in Australia is a real need for our clients to ensure that their managers, their site managers, are really aware of what union rights are in terms of accessing sites, accessing documents, and those sorts of things to make sure they're not then in a position of contravention. So I think certainly from an Australian perspective, that education about those rights has become really key, particularly as those rights have become more prevalent and more frequently exercised, as well.

Now, Jeannette, I think the experience in Hong Kong is quite different in terms of where Hong Kong's at in terms of union rights at the moment?

Jeanette Tam 14:40
Yes, that's entirely right. Hong Kong really is the exception, and so I think it will be really helpful to look at the timeline:

• In 2019, this was you know during the protests and the strikes, there was a huge surge in new unions – the register actually grew from around 900 unions to a peak of over 1,500.
• And then COVID came in into play in early 2020. As businesses restructured, some long-established unions lost their recognition agreements. (So in Hong Kong, recognition is actually voluntary. So even some really well-known professional unions found that they actually no longer had “a seat at the table”.)
• And then the national security law came into effect in 2020, and you know from that point onwards in 2021, the trend for union registration entirely reversed.
• So the number of registered unions peaked at the end of 2021, and it's basically fallen every year since. It was around 1,390 at the end of 2025. So when you look at it, around 275 unions have actually come off the register since 2021, and almost all by dissolving or at their own request, new registrations have almost dried up, with just five last year.
• And that brings us to the latest step in Hong Kong, on 5 January this year, an amendment was made to the Trade Unions Ordinance, and a union can now be refused registration on national security grounds. So this harks back to the national security law that came into effect in 2020.

Basically, a union now needs approval before they take funding from external forces, and its overseas affiliations are also restricted. There are also new record keeping duties, and then also new inspection powers for the registrar, so membership has basically followed the same path, and it's down about seven and a half percent since 2019, and it's now concentrated in the large federations.

Peter McNulty 17:14
And so, how has that played out for multinational corporations who are dealing with employees all over the globe, and having different experiences with union interactions with their workforces across the globe as well?

Jeannette Tam 17:27
To be really honest, I've advised employers on union issues here over the years, but for most multinationals, unions aren't really a day-to-day concern. A lot of the union activity is focused on very specific industries, like the gig economy, the ride-hailing companies, and also the airlines.

Hong Kong doesn't have collective bargaining legislation, and it's uncommon for employers to recognize a union. There's actually also no statutory duty to consult on collective redundancies. But in a sense, “low risk” isn't “no risk”. So employees still have the right to join a union and take part in its activities, and they're protected from being dismissed or penalized for doing so.

So our main tip is to be careful with global arrangements, and that means the kind of access agreements Ruth's mentioned, and global framework agreements, and cross-border employee forums. Check them against new rules and overseas affiliations and funding before you roll them out in Hong Kong, and for 2027, I expect consolidation rather than renewal.

Peter McNulty 18:47
You mentioned Singapore earlier as well. That's obviously quite a different experience there. In other jurisdictions in Asia, is there anything we're seeing which is which is of note?

Jeanette Tam 18:58
Yes, absolutely. I mean, turning to South Korea, it's again about contractors. So the Yellow Envelope Act basically took effect in March. It widens who counts as an employer to include anyone who substantially controls working conditions. So on the first day alone, around 400 subcontractor unions asked to bargain. It hasn't really been the flood that some has feared, though. And the first agreement was signed in September, and it focused on safety rather than wages. So for 2027, employers with outsourced workforces should be asking who really controls those working conditions.

And then turning to Indonesia: earlier this month, Parliament approved a new employment protection law. It follows a constitutional court decision on a challenge brought by unions, but it's not enforced yet. It still has to be formally enacted, which is expected in early November. The final wording also hasn't been published, so we don't know the exact detail yet. But unions are still calling it “a win” for themselves, and they say that most of the proposals did make it in, including tighter limits on outsourcing and fixed-term contracts. So for 2027, the real action will be in the final text and the implementing regulations. That's where we'd expect unions to push hard in Indonesia.

Peter McNulty 20:30
And Heather, in the US, I understand there's been historically some different experience between protections for non-union members and union members. Can you talk to us a bit about that?

Heather Sager 20:40
I think that's true, but perhaps it's not as different as you might think, having listened to Jeannette's description.

The National Labor Relations Act has always applied to public and private sector employers, and also to represented and non-represented employees alike. But it's only been in recent years that there's been a bit more of a spotlight on rights under the National Labor Relations Act for employees who are not represented by unions, and that's resulted in a real strategic change in the way that employers are required to phrase things like confidentiality agreements, separation agreements, severance plans, and other restrictions on what employees are able to share with each other about their terms and conditions of employment. That focus on those rights and restrictions in the context of non-represented employees is really something that we've seen an uptick in in just the past few years.

Peter McNulty 21:39
And how are employers meeting that challenge, Heather? I know our clients have recently been through a number of pay secrecy reforms – outlawing confidentiality clauses which prohibited employees from talking about their pay. We're seeing limitations on non-disclosure agreements in particular jurisdictions in Australia, particularly relating to sexual harassment. What's the experience over there in terms of how employers are responding?

Heather Sager 22:08
Exactly the same, Peter. You're spot on. Those are the types of issues we're seeing under U.S. law. We're probably a bit further along. There have been some attempts at federal regulation in all the categories that you referenced, but mostly there have been rampant restrictions on those types of things on a statewide basis. The national law, again, being in large part the National Labor Relations Act, but we also have seen a big push for new legislation restricting employers' ability to keep those types of discussions confidential and restrict employees' ability to share that information both during and post-employment, interestingly enough.

Peter McNulty 22:52
So if we head back over to Europe, Jordan, I understand we're also seeing various restrictions being implemented in Spain and Germany at the moment?

Jordan Cohen 23:02
That's right, Peter. So both Spain and Germany are tightening time recording requirements, which may give union a basis for dispute.

A new bill in Spain would require a digital working time register, and the right to disconnect must be negotiated with workers' representatives. But many disconnection policies are still general statements. With these changes, unions are likely to actively check and dispute compliance with the right to disconnect.

But in Germany, we're seeing reform moving away from the eight-hour day to a weekly cap, increasing collective bargaining coverage. The Labour Ministry's June 26 draft bill keep the daily cap as the rule, but would allow collective agreements or under certain conditions works agreement to set a weekly cap instead. So the draft has not yet been adopted, and it would make an electronic time recording mandatory as a principle.

But in both countries, monitoring and productivity tools face union challenges on proportionality and privacy grounds.

Peter McNulty 24:05
And Jordan, how does that directive in the EU involve employee representatives?

Jordan Cohen 24:10
Yeah, the EU directives involve employee representatives in three areas: So we are talking about defining the same work or work of equal value, sharing pay information and correcting unjustified pay gaps.

So, when a pay system is not transparent, the burden of proof shifts to the employer. Each country is currently at a different stage:

• So, Spain builds on existing duties around pay registers and pay audits.
• France has a transposition bill in progress that favors defining equal value categories through collective agreements, and if no agreement is reached, the employer sets the categories after consulting the works council.
• And for Germany, they missed the 7 June 2026 deadline. It plans to implement a directive in early 2027 with reporting duty and information rights applying from June 28 with a retroactive effect to the year 2027. So in the meantime, courts are already reading existing law in line with the directive.

The main dispute is over how categories are going to be defined in job evaluation, salary bands, variable pay, and promotion criteria. This will directly affect the size of the pay gaps identified and lead to an individual and collective claims.

Peter McNulty 25:26
So we're nearly out of time. I think what would be useful is just to run through for each of us in our particular jurisdictions what's one piece of advice for employers for managing these relationships and union involvement in 2027? Maybe you first, Ruth?

Ruth Buchanan 25:42
I think in the UK there's been a lot of cynicism and distrust of the unions, for various legacy reasons. But I actually think unions are going to have a really important role to play in the coming years, particularly with the rise of AI. So I think my best piece of advice is to keep an open mind and not to view unions as an adversary.

Peter McNulty 26:06
And Heather, what's your advice for employers in the US?

Heather Sager 26:10
I would say my top tip is probably not really limited to 2027, but overall, if you don't want a union, don't give employees a reason to feel they have to explore one.

And what I mean by that is, you should provide lines of communication and resources for your employees that make them “feel heard”. You don't always have to give them exactly what they're asking for, but you have to give them a resource that will provide them with an opportunity to be listened to and give them feedback on the reason for the company's decision.

I always tell the story about a workforce that unionized because they didn't like the toilet paper in the workplace, and the employer ignored that, and it led the employees to conclude that the employer also would ignore issues that were more important to them (like compensation, vacation time, benefits, promotions, the list goes on and on). So they didn't think their employer cared about what they had to say, and they sought out a third party to do the talking for them.

Peter McNulty 27:06
And Jordan, given your take, really interested in your perspectives for Europe.

Jordan Cohen 27:10
My advice would be to treat social dialogue as a strategic asset rather than a “box-ticking exercise”. So engage early and transparently with the works council and union, especially on AI and reorganization projects.

Peter McNulty 27:24
And Jeannette, you've covered a lot of ground today. What's your overarching message for employers?

Jeannette Tam 27:30
Across Asia, there's really no single playbook. Union activity ranges from very quiet in Hong Kong to fast growing, and so take it “country by country”. Don't assume what works in one market will work in the next.

Peter McNulty 27:47
Fantastic. And look, I think from an Australian perspective, our key message for employers is the unions are now entrenched in their roles. The regulations and legislation that has been passed over the past couple of years means the prominence of unions in workplaces is continuing to rise, and that means for employers they need to be thinking about their industrial relations strategies really carefully, and that's not just thinking about the next enterprise bargain, but thinking about relationships with employees and unions across a broader spectrum, a longer period of time.

Think about the next two-to-three-year horizon. Think about what the workforce is going to look like and workforce change, and how those unions will become involved, and how you can manage that involvement in a proactive way.

Well, look, thanks everyone. It's always really fascinating to bring together our global group. I know we talk a lot internally about the developments going on in each other's jurisdictions, but I think for our clients and our audience, it's really fantastic to get those different perspectives and be able to draw those get together and take some learnings from that.

So thank you to Heather, Jeannette, Jordan, and Ruth for joining me today, that's been great. And to our listeners, we hope you found this a really informative episode.

If you'd like to find out more about the issues raised in the episode, please feel free to get in touch with us, or visit ashurstperkinscoie.com. And to make sure you don't miss out on future episodes of Legal Outlook, subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast platform. And while you're there, please keep the conversation going by leaving us a rating or a review. Thanks very much for listening, and goodbye for now.