Ahead of the Deal - Australian M&A briefing
Key insights
An examination of schemes of arrangement and takeovers involving ASX listed targets with a transaction value of more than $50 million announced in the first half of 2026 reveals a number of emerging trends:
- Private capital spend has ticked up
- Targets in the wider energy industry are ripe for acquisition
- Cash is no longer king, with scrip consideration on the rise
- Hostile bids are on the uptick
- Median premiums have been more muted
57% of the total number of deals announced so far have related to the wider energy industry, including targets involved directly in the energy sector and miners (or extractors) of copper, lithium and other rare earth elements critical to the energy transition.
Overview
Following up on the detailed analysis in our M&A Deal Report 2026, an examination of schemes of arrangement and takeovers involving ASX listed targets with a transaction value of more than $50 million announced in the first half of this year shows that deal activity remains relatively buoyant – though with notable evolutions to the bidder mix, sectors of activity, deal tactics and consideration.
In the six months to 30 June 2026, there have been 21 binding deals – which, on an annualised basis, puts this year's public M&A deal count in line with 2025 (40 deals) and only slightly below 2024 (43 deals) and 2023 (45 deals). Looking at transactions by value, however, with deals having an aggregate value of $28.3 billion already announced in H1 2026, we are on track to surpass levels seen in the past two years ($38.7 billion in 2025, and $45.3 billion in 2024).
Looking beyond those headline figures, we see five key trends shaping public M&A deal-making so far in 2026:
- Private capital spend has ticked up
- Targets in the wider energy industry are ripe for acquisition
- Cash is no longer king, with scrip consideration on the rise
- Hostile bids are on the uptick
- Median premiums have been more muted
1. Private capital makes a strong start
The first half of 2026 saw two private capital backed mega deals (being those deals exceeding $1 billion), with a combined value of $16.7 billion:
- the Macquarie Asset Management led consortium's successful $9.3 billion acquisition of Qube Holdings; and
- IFM Global Infrastructure's $7.4 billion hostile takeover bid for the shares in Atlas Arteria that it did not already own (see further below).
Although these are the only two transactions involving private capital bidders that were announced in H1 2026, their value means that private capital has made a relatively strong start to 2026, particularly compared to the equivalent period in 2025 where there were no deals involving private capital. Indeed, based on these two deals alone, the value of private capital transactions announced in the first half of 2026 alone has eclipsed the aggregate value of private capital bids in 2024 and 2025 combined. The second half of the year has also started strongly for private capital-led deals in particular, with I Squared Capital entering into a scheme implementation deed to acquire oOh!media and other announced and proposed transactions including EQT's proposal to acquire Cleanaway, Brookfield's approach to Reliance Worldwide Corporation and the approaches by TPG and BGH Capital to the holding company for Equity Trustees.
2. Interest in the wider energy industry surges
Our M&A Deal Report 2026 highlighted energy transition assets as a significant area of focus in Australia for 2026, reflecting an ongoing appetite for scale and portfolio optimisation in this sector. Unsurprisingly, Australia's energy transition has been a driver of deal activity in the first half of 2026.
57% of the total number of deals announced so far (12 deals) have related to the wider energy industry, including targets involved directly in the energy sector and miners (or extractors) of copper, lithium and other rare earth elements critical to the energy transition. This is a significant increase on 2025, where it was only 18% of the deals (seven) announced. Indeed, the number of transactions in this sector has almost doubled in just six months.
The total investment in the wider energy industry has also increased to $3.1 billion or 11% of total deal value in H1 2026, up from $1.2 billion or 4% of total deal value in 2025.
The top three transactions announced so far in the wider energy industry were:
- Critical Metals Corp's proposed $1 billion acquisition of European Lithium, which is involved in mining of key minerals including lithium and rare earth elements;
- Energy Fuels Inc's proposed $561 million acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials, which is involved in mining rare earth elements; and
- Pan African Resources plc's successful $310 million acquisition of Emmerson Resources, a gold and copper mining company.
3. Cash is no longer king, with scrip consideration on an upwards trajectory
In the first half of 2026, we have seen a notable decline in the use of cash consideration. Only 43% of deals involved the bidder offering cash only consideration or offering target shareholders the ability to select all-cash consideration. This is a significant decline from 2025 and 2024, where 73% and 74% (respectively) of deals in those years offered target shareholders the option to receive all-cash consideration.
Significantly, 43% of transactions announced in the first half of 2026 involved the bidder offering target shareholders all share (or scrip) consideration, and 14% of deals offered both scrip and cash consideration, with no option to receive all-cash.
There has also been a trend away from all-cash mega deals. In 2025, there were six all-cash-mega deals which accounted for 75% of deals valued over $1 billion. By contrast, only two all-cash mega deals (40% of mega deals) have been announced so far in 2026, with the remaining three mega deals (60%) offering all scrip consideration to target shareholders.
4. Bidders turn hostile
The first half of 2026 saw more hostile takeovers than the entirety of 2025.
Hostile takeover bids account for 19% of announced deals (four transactions) in the six months to 30 June 2026, up from 8% of deals (three transactions) in 2025.
The four hostile bids are:
- IFM Global Infrastructure's $7.4 billion hostile takeover bid for Atlas Arteria;
- Frasers Group's ongoing $397 million on-market takeover bid for Accent Group;
- Horizon Oil's successful $98 million bid for Cue Energy Resources; and
- Xingye Gold's ongoing $66 million takeover bid for Far East Gold.
IFM Global Infrastructure acquired an initial 19% stake in Atlas Arteria in 2022, and at the time sought access to due diligence information to enable it to make a control proposal. No control proposal eventuated, and since that time, IFM has been creeping up Atlas Arteria's register. Not long after IFM acquired its initial stake, Atlas Arteria purchased a 66.7% majority interest in the Chicago Skyway toll road for $2.9 billion, which IFM described at the time as 'shareholder value-destruction'. The terms of this acquisition included provisions which gave Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board (OTPPB) a put option in the case of a change in control of Atlas Arteria, which if exercised would require Atlas Arteria to acquire the remaining 33.3% in the Chicago Skyway at a premium to the fair market value. The arrangement also granted OTPPB a right of first offer over Atlas Arteria's 66.7% interest in the toll road. Both the terms of the put option and right of first offer, together with IFM's bid, were the subject of applications to the Takeovers Panel by IFM and Atlas Arteria, respectively, neither of which resulted in any proceedings being conducted. IFM's hostile takeover bid, launched when it had acquired a 35% stake, did not include a minimum acceptance condition, and failed to receive a recommendation from Atlas Arteria's independent directors. IFM closed its bid with a relevant interest of approximately 67%.
Despite the Board of Cue Energy Resources continuing to recommend that shareholders reject the hostile bid from Horizon Oil, the bid closed with Horizon Oil holding a 57.03% stake and led to the resignation of five directors and the appointment of four new directors, all associated with the bidder.
The Frasers Group / Accent Group and Xingye Gold / Far East Gold takeover bids remain on foot, with the independent board committees of both targets continuing to recommend that shareholders reject the takeover proposals on the basis that (from the respective IBC perspectives) both companies have been significantly undervalued.
5. Median premiums come off the boil
The median premium (as a percentage relative to the pre-bid closing price) offered by bidders in the first half of 2026 was only 32%, which is a significant fall from the median premium of 45% seen in 2025, and still lower than the median premium of 38% in each of 2023 and 2024.
Only one bidder has offered a premium greater than 100% in 2026: Energy Fuels' proposed scheme of arrangement with Australian Strategic Materials is at a 173.10% premium. The remaining premiums on the other 20 transactions announced so far this year are all less than 83%. This is a sharp contrast to 2025, where the top five premiums offered were all in excess of 100%.
The gap between the median premium offered by friendly and hostile bidders has also widened, with (perhaps unsurprisingly) the top five premiums all being offered in friendly deals.
Want to know more?
- See our M&A Deal Report 2026 for our detailed analysis of Australian public M&A transactions announced in 2025.
Authors: Susannah Macknay, Partner; Lisa d'Oliveyra, Senior Corporate Development Counsel; John McMeniman, Senior Associate and Brandon Lam, Lawyer.
